Baseball Toaster Catfish Stew
Help
STOP CASTING POROSITY! An Oakland Athletics blog.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Catfish Stew
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  01 

2004
12  09  08  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08 
Email Us

Ken: catfish AT zombia d.o.t. com
Ryan: rarmbrust AT gmail d.o.t. com
Philip: kingchimp AT alamedanet d.o.t net

Ken's Greatest Hits
28 Aug 2003
12 Jan 2004
31 May 2005
11 May 2005
29 Jun 2005
8 Jun 2005
19 Jul 2005
11 Aug 2005
7 Sep 2005
20 Sep 2005
22 Sep 2005
26 Sep 2005
28 Sep 2005
29 Sep 2005
18 Oct 2005
9 Nov 2005
15 Nov 2005
20 Nov 2005

13 Dec 2005
19 Jan 2006
28 Jan 2006
21 Feb 2006
10 Apr 2006
16 Apr 2006
22 Apr 2006
7 May 2006
25 May 2006
31 May 2006
18 Jun 2006
22 Jun 2006
6 Jul 2006
17 Jul 2006
13 Aug 2006
15 Aug 2006
16 Aug 2006
20 Aug 2006
11 Oct 2006
31 Oct 2006
29 Dec 2006
4 Jan 2006
12 Jan 2006
27 Jan 2007
17 Feb 2007
30 Apr 2007
27 Aug 2007
5 Sep 2007
19 Oct 2007
23 Nov 2007
5 Jan 2008
16 Jan 2008
4 Feb 2008
7 May 2008
20 Jun 2008
4 Feb 2008
Nine Carl Everetts, Five Bronson Arroyos
2007-05-04 13:41
by Ryan Armbrust

It was famously stated in Moneyball that a team of nine Scott Hattebergs would score more runs than the Yankees. That got me thinking... What player, multiplied by nine, would be equivalent to the A's current offense?

Right now, Oakland is sporting a truly ugly .234/.309/.355/.654 line of avg/obp/slg/ops, roughly the same as the season that Carl Everett put up in Seattle (.227/.297/.360/.657) last year -- before being cut for offensive ineptitude.

No wonder it's been so painful to watch the A's hit this season. We're watching a circa-2006 Carl Everett go out there and hack.

As bad as the hitting has been, though, the pitching has been superb. The A's current stat line of a 3.26 ERA in 243.0 innings with 184 strikeouts and 80 walks is strikingly similar to the excellent season posted by Bronson Arroyo last year in Cincinnati. Arroyo had a 3.29 ERA in 240.1 innings with 184 strikeouts and 64 walks.

So, then, the A's have been a team composed of a National League-level elite pitching and terrible American League DH flailing at the plate. No wonder they have a record of 13-14. Nine Carl Everetts in the lineup and five Bronson Arroyos in the rotation seem to add up to a near-.500 record -- not to mention one very strange clubhouse.

Looking at the big picture, with a current runs scored to runs allowed ratio of 104:99, the A's would be expected to be one game over .500 at this point. With 27 games played, at the current rate, this team should score just 624 runs, but only allow a measley 594. That would be the first time since 1990 that Oakland has allowed less than 600 runs. It would also be the fewest runs scored by the A's since 1979. What do 624 runs scored and 594 runs allowed project for an expected record? 85-77.

I've got to believe that the hitting will improve (and get healthier) much more than the pitching will falter over the course of the rest of the season, though, so 85 wins is probably a little low.

Comments
2007-05-04 14:46:05
1.   Ken Arneson
That would be one interesting clubhouse.
2007-05-04 14:53:03
2.   Ken Arneson
The run prevention might actually improve with better health, too. Right now, according to THT's stats, the A's are +17 on their infield defense, but -6 in the outfield. Gotta think that outfield run prevention could improve considerably with a real centerfielder.

But of course, then Crosby will get hurt, and the infield defense will go down the tubes.

2007-05-04 15:49:43
3.   Faramond
That projected record, 85-77, makes me shudder, because that's the record the 2003 Dodgers had, who squandered one of the great season pitching performances by a staff ever with their awful offense. Looks like the A's may be headed down that same road, though I think they'll win more than that. Beane's also a better GM than Dan Evans was in 2003.
2007-05-04 15:49:44
4.   Bob Timmermann
I thought this was going to be a "12 Days of Christmas" type thing and I was ready to belt out "FIVE BRONSON ARROYOS!!!"
2007-05-04 16:09:03
5.   Ken Arneson
4 "And a Harden on the DL!"

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.