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Playoff Predictions 2007
2007-10-02 20:41
In my preseason predictions over on the Juice Blog this year, I picked the Cubs to win the World Series. Last year, my preseason prediction was right, as I picked the Cardinals to win it all. The year before, I didn't make a preseason World Series prediction, but my postseason playoff prediction formula correctly predicted the White Sox as champions. This formula, which relies solely on the number of errors each team committed during the season (and accurately picks the Division Series winner 67% of the time), fell apart last year with a number of ties in error totals. This year, there are no ties: it predicts the Cubs to lose the Series to the Yankees. The formula says: (LDS: pick the team with the fewest errors) OK, so which one do I choose as my final answer--my formula or my preseason choice? Picking the Yankees is boring. I'll go with my preseason one--the errors formula works better in the LDS than in later rounds, anyway. Plus, I'd rather have fun than be right, any day. Go Cubs! * * * Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for winning the highly coveted title of Heavyweight of the Year. They swept the Texas Rangers in the final weekend of the year to take the crown. * * * I should probably add the disclaimer that while I've had some success in making predictions in general, I totally suck at predicting the AL West. Whenever I pick the A's, the Angels win the division, and vice versa. Clearly, I know nothing at all about that particular division.
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MLB Heavyweight Champion
If MLB champs were decided like boxing: beat the champ, and you're the champ.
The 2008 season started with the Red Sox as champs. They were beaten by the A's, who were beaten back by Boston, who were then swept by Toronto, who lost to Oakland, who lost to Cleveland, and so on, until we reached our current champion. The Heavyweight of the Year is the team that wins the most title bouts at the end of the season.
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I have no formula, but my predictions are the same as yours, except for Rockies over Cubs and Yankees over Rockies. I posted these on Dodger Thoughts earlier today and didn't copy yours.
My rooting interests would have the Angels beat the Rockies, but I don't have much confidence the Angels can beat the Red Sox. If they did, it would be akin to the Angels beating the Yankees in 2002, and we know how that turned out and how well the Angels have played them ever since.
AZ over Chicago, Colorado over Philadelphia, AZ over Colorado
Boston over AZ.
Cleveland over NY
Arizona over Chicago
Phily over Colorado
Boston over Cleveland
Arizona over Phily
Boston over Arizona
Out of the blue and into the white. A non-curse breaking win for the Sox should be less insufferable than one for Byrnesie.
Yankees over Indians (torn on this one)
Cubs over DBacks
Rockies over Philly
Sox over Yankees
Cubs over Rockies
Sox over Cubs
(before the season, I picked Tigers over Brewers, so what do I know?)
I suspect that choosing teams based Errors "works" as well as it does because you are (by proxy) simultaneously (to some extent) choosing them based on Runs Allowed.
Every one of Ken's picks also chooses the team that gave up the fewest runs except for every game involving the Yankees.
I have no idea why. Perhaps it's just a fluke, especially considering that this did not show up in the LCS or World Series, but I'm sticking with it.
Interesting. The other thing Errors (negatively) correlates with is Quality Starts. Did you check that...?
Would it be hard to check...?
Cubs over Snakes
Injuns over Evil Empire
Red Sox over Halo(e)s
Rockies over Cubs
Injuns over Sox
Injuns over Rockies
Should be fun!
Thanks Stewie!
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