Baseball Toaster: Catfish Stew : Despair

Despair

2006-05-29 23:22

by Ken Arneson

The A's just got their butts handed to them by Seth Etherton and the Kansas City Royals.

*sigh*

And *sigh* again.

I have griped about Frank Thomas and Jason Kendall round these parts this year, but of late, they haven't been problems. When Thomas returned to the familiar confines of US Cellular Field last week, he rediscovered his batting eye; he's not swinging at balls any more, he's swinging at good pitches to hit, and hitting them hard. He looks much more like the Frank Thomas of years past than the Frank Thomas of April. As for Jason Kendall, he has stopped grounding out to third so much, and as a result, is performing about as well as you'd expect.

The problem is this: yes, Jason Kendall is performing to expectations, but Jason Kendall was expected to be the worst hitter in the A's lineup. Instead, Jason Kendall's .675 OPS was the median OPS in tonight's A's lineup. And with the exception of Jay Payton replacing the injured Milton Bradley, it was pretty much the lineup Billy Beane expected to be fielding.

The A's lineup tonight breaks into three distinct groups:

Performing well above expectations

Nick Swisher: 1.037 OPS. PECOTA 90% percentile projection: .912 OPS.
Eric Chavez: .917 OPS. PECOTA 90%: .929 OPS.

Performing around expectations

Frank Thomas: .821 OPS. PECOTA 50%: .800 OPS.
Mark Kotsay: .748 OPS. PECOTA 50%: .745 OPS.
Jason Kendall: .675 OPS. PECOTA 50%: .671 OPS.

Performing way, way, way below expectations

Bobby Crosby: .642 OPS. PECOTA 10%: .671 OPS.
Mark Ellis: .629 OPS. PECOTA 10%: .655 OPS.
Jay Payton: .606 OPS. PECOTA 10%: .594 OPS.
Dan Johnson: .545 OPS. PECOTA 10%: .686 OPS.

The pitching struggles have been well documented, but if Crosby, Ellis, Payton, and Johnson had been performing anywhere even near shouting distance of their expectations, the pitching injuries would have only been a small blip on the season.

I'll give Ken Macha some credit here: he actually had the A's five best performing batters clustered 1-5 in the A's lineup tonight. But it's hard to win when nearly half your lineup is clunking along at their 10% PECOTA projections.

The season is almost two months old now. The time for excuses is over. These four players need to step up and step up now. Because if the A's get swept by the Royals, the A's 2006 season might die right here and now, of embarrassment.

Comments

2006-05-30 07:10:30

1. Sam DC

So am I reading right that the Nationals got the heavyweight belt from the Dodgers, but lost it last night to the Phillies?

2006-05-30 08:26:49

2. Ken Arneson

That is correct. The sidebar is updated now.

2006-05-30 11:07:11

3. Kayaker7

What is up with Dan Johnson? It is truly amazing how he fell off the map. Is he injured? Personal problems? Bueller? Anyone?

2006-05-30 11:31:51

4. Ken Arneson

Pitchers adjusted to him, and Johnson has yet to adjust back. They throw Johnson away, away, away, and Johnson keeps trying to pull everything, resulting in weak grounder after weak grounder.

The other day, the Chronicle wrote that they now think the problem is mechanical:

---
Johnson had spent the past few days trying to figure out how to fix a problem with his swing -- his top hand was not right, causing him to roll over on everything.

"Hence, the 9,000 ground balls in a row,'' Johnson said.
---
Source: sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/05/28/AS.TMP

2006-05-30 13:41:47

5. Kayaker7

I think the rolling over is called "cast." The way to solve that is to make sure the knuckles of your fingers all line up when you grip the bat...at least that's what I heard from hitting coaches. Personally, my grip feels too stiff when all my knuckles line up. Plus, most major leaguers don't seem to follow this dictum.

2006-05-31 03:44:23

6. Yu-Hsing Chen

Two in a roll to the Royals... this is looking reallllll bad.

2006-05-31 10:35:15

7. Ruben F Pineda

Perfect, I've been trying to figure out why I was mad people were harping on Thomas and Kendall when people gave a pass to Jay Payton. Lining up their performances next to their PECOTA's is a perfect illustration of who is really to blame here.

Ken, do you think the A's should demote Scutaro/Perez and call up Brown, thus allowing Melhuse more DH opportunities instead of keeping him on the bench for emergencies? The way Melhuse is hitting, he deserves to be in the lineup virtually every day. Heck, it even allows Kendall to show he isn't done, maybe seducing someone into taking at least some of his contract.

Man, I need to stop smoking everything my pharmacist girlfriend brings home...

2006-05-31 15:17:35

8. Ken Arneson

Well, Mark Ellis broke his thumb last night, so it looks like Scutaro and Perez both will have to stay.

Calling up Brown to replace Ellis on the roster might not be a bad idea. I guess the obvious person to call up is Mike Rouse.

I'm guessing though, that Javier Herrera gets placed on the 60-day DL, and Keith Ginter gets called up.