Baseball Toaster: Catfish Stew : A's Draft More High Schoolers

A's Draft More High Schoolers

2006-06-06 09:56

by Ken Arneson

The A's didn't choose until the 66th pick in 6/6/06 MLB draft. That's a lot of sixes. The A's chose Trevor Cahill, a converted shortstop, who has a commitment to Dartmouth. Is it a sign of the apocalypse that their first pick was a high school pitcher? To me, the interesting thing to me about this pick is not that he's a high schooler, but that he might be tough to sign. Which may not be a sign of the end of the world, but another sign (giving up a first round pick to sign Esteban Loaiza being the first) that the A's think this year's draft is terrible. If we're gonna spend $X on a player, let's pick one we think is worth $X, even if we don't get him.

With their third round pick, the A's picked Matthew Sulentic, a high school outfielder. He's small (5'10", 170), but may have had the best hitting stats of any high school player in the country (.600+ BA, 20+ homeruns). The scouting report says his "makeup is off the charts." He's signed with Texas A&M.

* * *

Rob McMillin has a little rant about how the A's are still getting credit for creative draft strategies (they drafted high schoolers!) that really aren't all that creative:

Brandon Wood, anyone? Nick Adenhart? No love for the Angels? How about Scott Elbert, Blake DeWitt, and Chad Billingsley for the Dodgers? Is a trend only a trend when the A's find themselves chasing the other guys' tail lights two freaking years after other teams have identified this alleged inefficiency?

I agree with his rant. The "inefficiency" angle on the MLB draft makes no sense to me. If teams were allowed to trade picks, then there would be opportunities to exploit inefficiencies. But since you're stuck with whatever draft position you end up with, drafting "strategy" is little more than a test to see who can come up with the most accurate sorting algorithm.

Sort these 700 players in order of their future value.

Every team will have a different algorithm, and even a small difference in measurement from the majority of other teams picking can make you look like you only like college players (A's), or high school players from Georgia (Braves), but really, your list is probably only slightly different from everyone else's.

Comments

2006-06-06 13:57:48

1. scareduck

Sort these 700 players in order of their future value.

That's actually a good way to put it.

2006-06-06 14:12:27

2. Ken Arneson

It probably would have been better if I had said 1500 players, or however many it is that get drafted.

2006-06-07 17:17:40

3. Kenny

From Mychael Urban's mlb.com story:

"I met with [the A's] a couple days ago, and we agreed that I'd sign if I went in the top four rounds," he said. "And I went in the second round, so ... I'm pretty excited to be playing professional baseball this summer."

Looks like Cahill is going to sign with the A's after all.

2006-06-08 12:42:05

4. scareduck

Ken, I just thought of something else after sleeping on the draft for a day or two: what may also be happening here is that, because the A's aren't drafting any in the first round, they're also doing what they usually do in lower rounds, only now it's getting attention because it's their first pick.