I love how you and the Viva la Birdos guy were the only bloggers not to pick the teams for which you blog. Excellent use of reverse jinx! Scott Brosius and I are on to you...

Just under two hours until playoff baseball starts. My productivity will be low... lower than when I spend hours at the Toaster during the regular season... er... is it possible to have negative productivity?

5 Well, in this case, the reverse jinx has the added bonus of being honest. I just can't see Santana losing a game five at home.

Not sure what I would have written had it been the Tigers.

i know i'm not in the target market, but a 1:00AM start doesn't make for sexy times, i must say.

5? Why did I put 5 instead of 1? I guess comment #5 is going to be a good one!

[2] yeah, but can't you see a radke, silva, and bonser (or garza or guerrier or whoever) losing games 2-4?

well, they cross-link, anyway :)

5 (A real 5 this time!) Yeah, I can see it, but I can also see them taking one of those three games. The Twins pen is so good, if they grab a lead after five innings, you're in trouble.

I almost hate to say it, but Esteban Loaiza is the key for the A's. He's so flaky. When he's on, he looks unhittable, and when he's off, he looks like the worst pitcher in baseball.

If he has one of his better games in game 2, the A's might be able to sweep in Oakland and win this thing. If the A's come back to Oakland down 0-2, then at best we're looking at Santana again in game 5.

And I know Radke is pitching hurt, but he killed the A's in the 2002 ALDS, so I still fear him.

Actually I'd rather be watching the game on the other side of the world. I might get fired for leaving work at 1 PM to go watch baseball games, but I'm free to watch games in the middle of the night, with the help of multiple pots of coffee. I could totally get some sleep between the Cards/Pads and Yanks/Tigers. Anyway, I'm just glad there's still an East Coast/NY bias in scheduling, so I'm not tempted to wire myself with a portable radio during my 1 PM meeting today...

8 I was in Sweden during the 1988 playoffs. 2AM game times. No live TV, only radio. Someday, I'll have to write my Kirk Gibson story.

Vernon Wells looks really comfortable in front of the camera on that Baseball Tonight set.

I'm getting a kind of zen feeling about this game. I'm not feeling nervous at all. This is weird.

11 Clearly, you've reached the acceptance stage, Ken.

um, ken... you've ended your A's fast, right?

13 I was just about to edit that...

ah, thanks. it caught my eye and was giving me a bad vibe. that's all cleared up now, though, so i'm ready to get this party started!

Yay! It's Jon Miller and Joe Morgan!

I cheer because neither one is named Buck.

it's been all miller so far, but if morgan is there too, i really want to see the A's stick it to him.

I just spent something like three hours researching and writing a detailed preview of this series only to lose the whole thing when I inadvertently unplugged my laptop. However, I feel strangely relieved, since I was down to the benches and I still had no feel for what was going to happen. I just don't know. I think the Twins are better, but, then again, the A's have the whole Opposite Day thing going for them this season.

I know it's not an original thought, but John Kruk must die. He is going to ruin the whole playoffs for me, I know it. I liked him so much when he was a player, too. Well, at least Tino Martinez's broadcasting career didn't pan out.

18 You were hit by the Scott Brosius voodoo!

[18] reminds me of a john vanderslice song in two separate ways.

Why are the A's wearing the green unis? The gray is so much classier.

i like the alternates. don't the starting pitchers get to choose? must be zito's doing. miller called kendall's strikeout a "cautionary tale" for the A's, heh.

Well, Santana looks good.

During my time at the Daily Californian, no single musician struck me as having a higher ratio of relentless self-promotion to actual talent than John Vanderslice. For what it's worth.

Whoo-hoo! Ball in play! We've got Santana figured out now!

Dark unis!

Bah, fie!

https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/317999.html

All right, let's see what kind of stuff Zito has today...

i don't remember the personality bit; pretty much all i remember is just that one song, which was decent enough.

Uh-oh, Zito looks bad.

looked like a stike to me too, jon. blah.

Zito better find his fastball and soon, or this game will be over in about five minutes.

Well, now I've seen everything.

Hooray for manufacturing runs!

thank goodness.

"You learn to be a hitter first and then the power will come." -- Joe Morgan, 10:22 a.m. PT

That strikes me as the exact opposite of everything I've ever heard about how baseball players develop. But who am I to question Joe Morgan, who advocates manufacturing runs? That worked out pretty well for the Twins in the first.

haren's starting game 3 and harden's slated for a game 4.

Woohoo! Big Hurt!

LARGE!

ahh, morgan says "there are times to run, and that wasn't one of them". i love how when things he advocates don't work out, he has an escape hatch ready.

GONE!!!!!! YES!

And I remember Morgan almost ordering Kenny Lofton to try to steal second off of Charles Johnson in the 1997 NLCS Game 5 with Livan Hernandez pitching. He pretty much said that Lofton was a wimp if he didn't try.

So Lofton tried to steal.

He was out.

Marco!

Dodger Sims have the A's as very very slight favorites to win today's game:
http://DodgerSims.Blogspot.com/
vr, Xei

Former A's great Eric Karros will be doing the color for Game 2, I heard him on the radio today, he's watching the game at home and flying out to Minnesota this afternoon.

Scooter!

hellllll yes! we need all the runs we can get against johan.

23 - What a difference an inning makes!

43 Ah, Eric Karros era. 103 at-bats that shaped a generation.

I suppose if I want to poop this party, I could point out that the A's led all five games they lost in the Metrodome this year.

i'm a little relieved, but i also feel like 2 may not be enough.

48 I think it would be best not to mention that.

Big start for the A's. Getting Johan to throw that many pitches is huge, not to mention scoring haha.

Perfect inning for A's.

Is Scutaro this year's Brian Doyle?

53 And I will feel really old if no one knows who Brian Doyle is and who he played for.

Marco Scutaro is Brian Doyle X Al Weis.

I detest these Tommy Lasorda postseason ads. "One of the teams we relentlessly promoted didn't make the playoffs? Well, you should still watch... I guess."

nice play, z!

c'mon, quit nibbling.

aw man, just foul!

55 Divided by Dusty Rhodes.

(sorry for the random exclamations; i'm alone in my dorm room at 2AM)

chavez looks lost. he was seriously golfing at the first two pitches.

56 Having had Tommy around for 30 years in LA, you grow to accept all is flaws and some of his tired cliches, "where else can a family of four spend blah blah blah for an evening of wholesome (not in some sections) entertainment" or "Bleed Dodger Blue", "If you are not a Dodger fan, not sure you will get to heaven."

The part that amazes me still is that he plays so well nationally but what can you expect from a guy who had a rib restaurant in Pasadena (remember that Bob) or his own spaghetti sauce.

53 I'm hoping he's this year's Scott Brosius!

yeah, barry's pretty much stopped throwing fastballs.

there we go, he brought it back just in time.

How do A's fans feel about root for Frank Thomas? About like rooting for Jeff Kent on the Dodgers this year?

[66] for me, not at all.

ps. [phew]

LOL

Please name John Maine Game 1 starter Randolph.

69 Is that a request?

Al Weis time?

Tough inning for the A's.

Since I don't venture here much, is it one more inning for Barry and then to the pen?

Nooooooooooooooooo! They just showed a Joe Buck commercial! We're doomed!

crap.

Rondel White is doing the damage in this game... What is going on?

gameday's box score is faster than the video and audio feed, so i saw the number on the scoreboard before white's at-bat. i could barely watch. i kept telling zito "no, don't do it!", but he did.

I didn't even know Rondell White was still playing!

73 The algorithm for when to remove an A's starting pitcher is here:

catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/502177.html

74 Okay, I'll bite, what is it about those bad beer commercials that dooms the A's?

i wouldn't mind zito for 8 and then duchscherer. unfortunately "street is the closer", the last time macha checked. even though he's obviously not 100% lately.

79 What's Zito's pitch count?

The curse of the Buck:
catfishstew.baseballtoaster.com/archives/156201.html

[82] 81 over 7IP

I miss Bradley's stache.

78- Neither did I, but it turns out he's only 34.

2 more innings, 2 more innings....

Aww hell Joe Buck.

gah!

it's NOT joe buck. it's not. no. it's not anything.

Awwwwww

79 The pain of being right.

Come on Zito...

Is this Macha's usual pattern re Zito?

Joe Morgan: "I still think you have to bunt."

Because, you know, a guy can't score from second on a single.

Yes!

Whew.

94 According to Ken's algorithm: yep, still under the pitch count, nope hasn't given up 5 runs, nope, hasn't given up a run yet this inning... Leave him in!

Anyone know the exact time this game started?

Santana done.

please use duchscherer in the 9th. pretty please? i mean, he's already been warming up. you might as well use him.

The MVP of that sequence was me, for leaving the room after the Bartlet double, thus ensuring that the Twins would make three straight outs.

Way to go A's offense aka Big Hurt.

Go insurance run!

YESSSSSSSSS!!! to answer your question daniel, i LOVE frank thomas unequivocally.

Street up in the pen; I don't think we're going to see Duchscherer.

Ken, you have some amazingly funny neuroses about the A's.

Why not just leave Zito in? He's not gassed by any means.

any thoughts about the potential wisdom of having zito in for mauer and morneau?

Game started at 10:10 PST.

So Frank Thomas is your Kirk Gibson, Vishal? Or has he not yet done the required three miracles for sainthood?

108 I agree. Street is too much of a question mark right now. Let Zito go through Morneau, at least.

Cuddy, Morneau, Hunter coming up.

If you're going to just stand there and watch, Marco, just buy a ticket next time.

[111]] kirk gibson is still my kirk gibson. i've always had a ton of respect and admiration for frank though, and his carrying of the A's year has added some fondness to the mix. let's hope it continues.

...and it'll be street, not zito.

Well poop. Ken Macha strikes again!

...!

I have no words.

Milton, oh Milton, its lonely out there in the outfield.

I agree.

Anyone else think you'd be worried when Rondell White came to the plate?

That last home run is looking pretty big right now. Imagine the Twins fans kicking themselves.

YESSS!

Game over. A's take the heart out of Minnesota for now.

Congrats, A's, one down.

2 hours, 20 minutes... quick, someone see if that's the shortest playoff game of the wild card era. ready... go!

Take that White Stockings.

[PHEW]

what an incredible relief.

Wonder what the Worldwide Leader is going to say about Santana in a 5 game series now...

Very happy for Ken. Now if we could just get his car back.

i'm too jittery to sleep.

When Bradley lost that ball in the roof, my wife forbade me from watching the rest of the game. I went to the kitchen and did some dishes, and she reported the results to me.

Nice one there for Oakland.

I agree with the decision to go with Street in the 9th. Zito was not particularly dominant, as his control was off, and his success was largely because the Twins were overly aggressive. I started worrying, though, when he gave up that homer on the high fastball in the 7th, because that's Minnesota's #7 hitter that blasted that one. Besides, if you go with Zito, and he gives up a run, do you then bring in Street, possibly with the tying run in scoring position already?

Still, nice to see Oakland get out in front, though, and it's also good to know that the Twins' aggressiveness can be a weakness.

It's not an easy decision for Macha what to do there. Zito was still below his pitch limit. Street's the closer, but he's been quite shaky lately. Duchscherer's been more solid, but he hurt his back this weekend, so he's a question mark, too.

It worked out, so credit Macha with the right decision, I guess.

127 The Braves beat the Dodgers in 2:04 in 1996.

136 Thanks, I knew someone would come through for me!

133 Ken, that's really eerie. When the Twins were threatening in the 8th and 9th, I got up to do the dishes.

I think we know what has to be done tomorrow.

138 We must avoid dirty dishes at all costs!

138, 139 Er, have y'all heard of those newfangled watery electric thingies called automatic dishwashers? Or are you like me; the plates/glasses have to be rinsed/scrubbed pretty well before they go into that gadget.

140 Well, when I said "doing the dishes" I actually meant "loading the dishwasher."

141 Glad to hear it. I was afraid you were out pounding the china with rocks in the streambed. ;)

DodgerSims is predicting an even higher probability of the A's winning tomorrow.
http://DodgersSims.blogspot.com/
vr, Xei

143 Interesting that your sim gave the A's a slightly bigger chance of winning today than the Twins. I'd never have guessed that. Any idea why?

BTW, there should be one less "s" in that url.

144. Thanks for pointing out the typo. Should be ".DodgerSims.". As far as why it was giving a very slight edge to the A's in today's game. Your guess is as good as mine. Perhaps because the A's best hitter is right handed. Hard to say that made the difference or not. Since it was so close, it was basically calling today's game a toss-up. Good luck in game #2. It likes the Cards and Yankees in the other two games. vr, Xei

While I haven't looked at the sim, it could be because Santana's basic (ERA and record) stats in the playoffs are pretty pedestrian. Yes, I know ERA and wins/losses suck and that there's only a small sample size to work from. Still...

Mkay, it has nothing to do with Santana having bad postseason numbers. Whoops. My bad. It's based on actual intelligent stats. ^_^

Re.143,144,145 (Xei) :
Your sims look pretty interesting, Xei. To me, the big subjective part, and potentially big source for non-realism is the part where you subtract a number from each batter's OBP based on the pitcher's ERA. How do you choose this number? This is non-trivial and could end up being pretty significant, both in OBP and micro-stats like singles rate,etc . I don't know if there's any established logic for "colliding" hitting and pitching overall probabilities to get the distribution of outcomes for a particular hitter-pitcher matchup.

148. I probably didn't explain it well enough, but it doesn't change the probabilities once you are determined safe. It just adjusts the probability of you actually making an out vs being safe. But yes, this is a little bit subjective but I see no perfect way to do it. Atleast not without turning it into a major science project. :) I look at the stats of each pitcher, so I adjust accordingly. It's not a perfect science by any means. One thing I'd eventually like to do is take into consideration a pitchers and hitters fly ball to ground ball ratio, for determining what kind of outs they are most likely to get when they don't strike out. vr, Xei

Re.149:
Thanks, Xei; I was actually curious about whether there was a sound math way to adjust the probability of making an out, depending on who the pitcher is. I suspect it would involve use of variance stats for both the hitting and pitching stats. You probably apply a factor based on the pitcher's ERA compared to the average ERA. Yeah, I agree , it's too much to bother with unless it's your thesis or something :)