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I'm sure you can find plenty of ALCS previews out there. No need to repeat that stuff. I'll just dash off a few thoughts as the ALCS approaches:
Which member of the A's organization has the highest career OPS against Kenny Rogers?
The A's style was evident in their series victory over the Twins. I call this style "outnotmistaking".
The Twins made all kinds of mistakes: defensive mistakes, batting approach mistakes, baserunnings mistakes. The A's outnotmistaked the Twins.
The A's aren't the most talented bunch of players in the history of baseball. They can be defeated. But if they lose this ALCS, it will probably be because the Tigers defeated them, not because the A's defeated themselves.
Unless:
Mark Ellis was a huge part of the A's "outnotmistaking" style. He set a major league record this year for fielding percentage by a second baseman. Ellis is a solid as they come; he always seems to make the right decision.
How much will the A's lose by having D'Angelo Jimenez at 2B instead of Mark Ellis?
Here are some career stat comparisons at 2B:
Player | Fielding % | Range Factor | Zone Rating | DT Rate | UZR (2000-03) |
Mark Ellis | .987 | 5.19 | .873 | 104 | +22 |
D'Angelo Jimenez | .984 | 4.99 | .829 | 99 | +3 |
Ellis is clearly better in every way. The good news is, Jimenez isn't completely horrible. I'm guessing the dropoff will cost the A's one run, maybe two, over the course of the series. Hopefully, that one run won't be a costly one.
Here's are the current A's lifetime numbers against Rogers, in OPS order:
Bradley, 10 ABs, 1.238.
Thomas, 58 ABs, 1.127.
Scutaro, 19 ABs, 1.034.
Kendall, 27 ABs, .989.
Payton, 21 ABs, .935.
Kotsay, 36 ABs, .760.
Swisher, 15 ABs, .722.
Kielty, 35 ABs, .714.
Chavez, 54 ABs, .603.
Jimenez doesn't seem to have faced Rogers.
Both teams are good at keeping the ball in the ballpark. The Tigers (160) were 2nd and the A's (162) were 3rd in fewest home runs allowed. The Tigers hit 203, while the A's hit 175.
This will be of particular interest in Game 1. Barry Zito makes a living off overaggressive teams who chase his pitches outside the strike zone. If the Tigers don't work the count against Zito, and force him to either throw strikes or walk them, they might be in for a long evening.
Haren: 5-for-12
Zito: 7-for-11
Blanton: 7-for-10
Loaiza: 3-for-10
Harden: 4-for-4
If Polanco comes up in a key situation, we might see Kirk Saarloos, who is the only pitcher on the A's roster who has had any sort of demonstrated success against him. Polanco is only 2-for-13 against Saarloos.
vr, Xei
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
But no splits by handedness.
The Coliseum suppresses everything except doubles.
Comerica suppresses doubles and homers, which makes the park slightly pro-pitcher.
50 game simulation of tonight's game #1 of the ALCS is in. The Tigers have been given the pythagorean probability of winning the game of .536
http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/
vr, Xei
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