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Colletti Thoughts
2005-11-15 21:32
by Ken Arneson

For you Dodger fans out there who fear that new GM Ned Colletti does not adhere to sabermetric principles, I advise you to think again.

There has been no organization in baseball history that believes more strongly in the sabermetric principle of TINSTAAPP than the Giants of recent vintage.

Dodger fans can now expect that every single pitching prospect they have will be traded for some sort of average major-league talent. Every. Single. One.

That sounds worse than it actually is. Sure, every once in a while you'll give up a Joe Nathan, or a Francisco Liriano--a pitching prospect that actually turns into a good pitcher. But more often than not, you'll be getting a legitimate big leaguer in exchange for some kid who won't ever get more than a cup of coffee. Wouldn't you rather have three years of Livan Hernandez than six years of Jason Grilli and Nate Bump?

* * *

And if you're an A's fan...shhhhh...keep a low profile...Chad Billingsley could be in an Oakland uniform any day now...

Comments
2005-11-15 22:45:43
1.   sanchez101
It would be pretty funny if Billy Beane avenged Depodesta by stealing a handful of Dodger prospects, he just needs to get a hold of some graying veterans to give Colletti.
2005-11-15 23:34:19
2.   scarface
sanchez, exactly what I had hoped for in earlier post, though Ken and others astutely pointed out that the Dodgers failing gives a boost to the Angels' market-share, and comes back and bites the Athletics. Possibly. I kinda want both Bay Area teams to do well though, so I guess it'll be an interesting ride...

Hey Ken, Matt Cain was pretty well guarded from being traded. But I dread his first setback...cos what Sabes/Colletti lacked was patience with their pitching prospects in such situations, from recent memory.

Also, you're being sarcastic with your 4th paragraph, right? That Liriano/Nathan trade was worse than catastrophic in its ramifications, and I'm not sure Sabes/Colletti did anything that would come close to balancing out the scales of (my) opinion in their favour.

2005-11-16 00:10:31
3.   Ken Arneson
Scarface...shhhh...please don't point out the flaws in my argument. I'm trying to make the Dodgers think that trading their best pitching prospects to the A's would be a good idea.
2005-11-16 00:20:32
4.   scareduck
Given how Dodgers "top pitching prospects" include guys like Edwin Jackson, well, your mileage may vary, but if the Dodgers can get someone like, say, Daric Barton from the A's for that, I'm all ears.
2005-11-16 01:04:16
5.   Ken Arneson
Edwin Jackson is exactly the sort of young pitcher the Giants would trade, if they had him. If the young pitcher shows any sort of regression at all...boom...he's outta there, ASAP.

Which is probably why Cain hasn't been traded yet. (And probably why Billingsley won't be traded either, but I can hope...)

The Dodgers would never get a Barton-type for a Jackson-type. A Witasick would be more like it.

2005-11-16 01:38:58
6.   fanerman
So... I never liked green and yellow. Seems so unnatural. Is it... not so bad as when you picture it in your head?
2005-11-16 07:43:13
7.   Rich Lederer
Is TINSTAAP a sabermetric principle or a Baseball Prospectus principle?
2005-11-16 08:25:46
8.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
TINSTAAP is an interesting notion... I wonder where the research on it is.

It seems to imply that the Clemenses and the Madduxes can't be distilled from the hoardes of also-rans, and that statistically, you can't tell them apart at first. That wiki-entry Ken posted shows the postitives, but how many negatives? Bunches of wholes in that wiki-entry... Bunches...

2005-11-16 09:37:39
9.   Marc Normandin
Isn't TINSTAAP John Sickels' acronym? Which would make it lean to the sabermetric rather than BP specifically.
2005-11-16 09:39:05
10.   Marc Normandin
And if not, where the hell did I hear/read that it was?
2005-11-16 10:20:17
11.   Vishal
[6] it's green and GOLD. and i think they go together beautifully.
2005-11-16 10:24:55
12.   Ken Arneson
According to the wiki link above, TINSTAAPP was coined by Gary Huckabay on rec.sport.baseball many years ago. I don't know if that's true or not.
2005-11-16 12:50:50
13.   Rich Lederer
Ken is right. TINSTAAP was coined by Huckabay. John Sickels came up with LOOGY.
2005-11-16 13:20:38
14.   Marc Normandin
2 points for Rich for figuring out my mental issue. It didn't help that I looked through a Sickels book and found TINSTAAPP in it.
2005-11-16 14:26:33
15.   graciebarn
Ken, I've gotta say, your program has improved immensely from your last post.
2005-11-16 16:09:07
16.   fanerman
So what has Billy Beane been up to these days? I wonder if he's talked to DePo about coming back. Though I imagine DePo wants a team of his own.

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