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4 Feb 2008
The Dan Marino Rule
2006-04-08 15:47
by Ken Arneson

What I call the "Dan Marino Rule" played out in last night's A's-Mariners game. This rule of thumb states that whenever a superhyped prospect gets matched up against a lesser-hyped player with a longer history of success, they lesser-hyped player will outperform the hyped player.

I call it that because it reminds me of Super Bowl XIX, where all we heard all week before the game was how great Dan Marino was. And yes, Dan Marino was a great player. But Joe Montana won.

So we got the stories about how the A's were afraid of facing Felix Hernandez in his first start of the year, and not a word about Joe Blanton. But Joe Blanton won.

Blanton and Justin Duchscherer combined to face only one batter over the minimum. Blanton had every pitch working, with great location. He went eight strong innings, giving up only a walk and two hits.

Hernandez only yielded two hits, as well, but the A's made him throw a lot more pitches in the process. Hernandez hit the 100 pitch mark after five innings, while Blanton threw 99 in eight.

Hernandez has nasty stuff, for sure, but perhaps making him throw a lot of pitches is the best approach against him. This article by David Appelman shows that Hernandez had the fourth-lowest percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone last year, and two of the players ahead of him (Al Leiter and Kirk Rueter) have retired. You may not beat Hernandez directly with such an approach, but you might be able to get him out of the game and beat a lesser pitcher. It worked last night.

Comments
2006-04-08 18:37:19
1.   scarface
And Blanton had the opposite approach (compared to Felix), I thought - mostly attacked IN the strke zone, even with a seemingly high number of 1st pitch curve strikes and several high corner fastballs that were no faster than 90mph. Worked beautifully yesterday, but I fear a better lineup (like a playoff team) might knock him out. Not complaining though, and wish our "veteran" learns from the youngster.

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