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Shannon Stewart as an A
2007-02-08 04:07
by Ryan Armbrust

With the apparent news that Shannon Stewart has been inked to a deal with Oakland to be in the running for the 4th, 5th, 6th an outfield job, I decided to see what the ol' crystal ball had to say.

Using a weighted average based on the accuracy of the systems in years past, I came up with what I've called the Grand Unified Projection for Shannon Stewart.

S. Stewart AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Bill James 339 20 7 29 43 .292 .357 .419
CHONE 377 19 8 34 48 .282 .346 .405
MARCEL 321 15 7 27 44 .283 .342 .408
PECOTA 304 14 5 25 39 .273 .332 .383
ZiPS 342 17 7 31 49 .275 .341 .392
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Weighted Avg. 336 17 7 29 45 .281 .344 .402

While that's not the kind of power that you'd like to see from a corner outfielder, there's nothing wrong with a .281/.344/.402 line.

That's assuming Stewart stays healthy, of course. Considering that he's spent his entire career on carpet in the Sky Dome Rogers Centre and Metrodome, and that his major problem has been with his legs and feet... I've got to think that he'll hold up better on real grass on Oakland.

If he can earn the playing time amongst the other dozen outfielders on the roster, that is. With the likes of Bobby Kielty, Ricky Ledee, Ryan Goleski, Hiram Bocachica, Charles Thomas, Javier Herrerra, Travis Buck and whoever else Billy Beane signs in the next two weeks, Stewart will have plenty of company in the outfield this March.

Comments
2007-02-08 09:50:09
1.   Aaron in RF
Interesting work, here and over at The Pastime (which I'll bookmark), thanks. I note that the wieghted averages you give are essentially identical to the arithmetic averages, at least for the line (.281/.344/.401). Is that a fluke for this particular player?
2007-02-08 12:20:03
2.   MrIncognito
Intuitively, it seems like the injured-so-long-they're-forgotten players should have two peaks on their probability distribution. Either they might be healed and post numbers above the mean projection, or be unable to heal and perform significantly below. Does anyone know if anyone has done any work on this?
2007-02-08 13:33:17
3.   Ryan Armbrust
Aaron in RF, I think that the weighted averages are close to the arithmetic averages for two reasons. One, Stewart's projections are all pretty close. Two, there isn't that large a difference between the systems. They're all running at a correlation of between .664 and .736, so they're all still weighted similarly.

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