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Balls and Strikes and Changed Names
2007-06-14 15:21
by Ryan Armbrust

Here, for your consideration, are the career major league numbers for two relief pitchers:

  ERA IP H R ER BB SO
Pitcher A 9.82 11.0 9 12 12 12 8
Pitcher B 0.00 10.0 4 0 0 2 8

Though each has a small sample size, there's certainly not much in common between the two at first glance.

If you haven't already guessed, Pitcher A is Jairo Garcia, and Pitcher B is Santiago Casilla -- the same person.

So what's changed? After watching his 11th inning against the Astros, where he threw eight of his ten pitches for strikes in a 1-2-3 inning, I think I have a theory. Casilla is simply trusting his stuff, and pounding the strike zone more. Here are his strike-to-ball ratios for his career:

2004 -- 57:66
2005 -- 13:21
2006 -- 12:15
2007 -- 56:44

That's a pretty clear trend. Before revealing his true name and age, Jairo Garcia had a 82-to-102 strike to ball ratio with an ugly 9.82 ERA. After the name change, Santiago Casilla has yet to give up a run.

Perhaps Jay Marshall (5.56 ERA, 9:8 K:BB in 22.2 IP) should consider changing his name...

Comments
2007-06-14 16:26:21
1.   Eric Enders
You know, I followed Jairo Garcia's minor league career for a couple of years, and even had him on my fantasy league team for a week or so. Then the other day I was watching an A's game and said to myself "Who's this Casilla cat who the A's always seem to pitch in close/late situations?" I even looked his stats up on the web but didn't put two and two together. I knew Jairo had been outed as a fraud but I'd forgotten his new name.
2007-06-14 16:57:22
2.   Ken Arneson
Casilla has two different sliders now, which I think makes a huge difference for him. One slider is a kind of slurvy one that he can throw for strikes, and the other is a nasty one that just dives out of the strike zone hard into the dirt.

I think that MLB hitters just spit on the slider before, because he couldn't throw it for strikes. Now they have to respect it, which helps him get a lot more takes on his fastball, and swing-throughs on both the hard slider and the fastball.

However, he's been a bit lucky, too, as he has hung several of those slurvy sliders and gotten away with it so far. But eventually, he's going to give up some long balls on that pitch.

But heck, even if he does, I'll take that. With Duchscherer and Street out, and Calero struggling, Casilla has been a godsend. The bullpen was creaking apart before he arrived, and he just nailed things solid shut.

And then there's Colby Lewis. He was awful in that one start, but great out of the pen. And DiNardo, another waiver claim. And today, the A's just claimed Ruddy Lugo off waivers from Tampa Bay. Can the A's help Lugo find whatever magic they sprinkled on their other pitching pickups this year?

I've been suspecting for some time now that the A's have found some kind of --I hate to use the word "inefficiency" -- secret formula for pitching. I think it has something to do with pitching to contact (and defying DIPS in the process), but I have no idea what it is beyond this suspicion.

2007-06-14 17:07:22
3.   Ken Arneson
As for Jay Marshall, if he weren't a Rule 5 guy, he'd be sent back to the minors. He's nasty on lefties, but still has some work to do to learn to pitch against righties. Lefties are hitting .238 off him, righties .327.

Since they can't do that, he'll probably be OK if they used him strictly as a LOOGY. He's been used against RHB more often than he should have because of all the injuries. But this past week, I think Bob Geren has rightly placed Ron Flores ahead of Marshall in the bullpen pecking order now, and I think Marshall will be used more effectively as either a pure LOOGY or a blowout innings eater from here on out.

2007-06-14 17:24:32
4.   For The Turnstiles
The name change came in between the 2005 and 2006 seasons.

But yeah, I had kind of written him off as another one of those pitchers with "great stuff" but no command at all (Chad Harville, Juan Cruz, etc.). He could always revert back to that, of course, but in all the appearances I've seen he's looked really sharp, so I'm willing to believe that he figured something mechanical out, and the ball's now going where he wants it to go.

2007-06-14 18:23:43
5.   Ryan Armbrust
4 Whoops, you're right... well, the name change wasn't really the impetus for his better pitching, anyway. The fact that Casilla is now throwing more strikes -- and as Ken pointed out, has refined his slider -- is the real reason he's improved.

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