Baseball Toaster Catfish Stew
Help
STOP CASTING POROSITY! An Oakland Athletics blog.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Catfish Stew
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  01 

2004
12  09  08  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08 
Email Us

Ken: catfish AT zombia d.o.t. com
Ryan: rarmbrust AT gmail d.o.t. com
Philip: kingchimp AT alamedanet d.o.t net

Ken's Greatest Hits
28 Aug 2003
12 Jan 2004
31 May 2005
11 May 2005
29 Jun 2005
8 Jun 2005
19 Jul 2005
11 Aug 2005
7 Sep 2005
20 Sep 2005
22 Sep 2005
26 Sep 2005
28 Sep 2005
29 Sep 2005
18 Oct 2005
9 Nov 2005
15 Nov 2005
20 Nov 2005

13 Dec 2005
19 Jan 2006
28 Jan 2006
21 Feb 2006
10 Apr 2006
16 Apr 2006
22 Apr 2006
7 May 2006
25 May 2006
31 May 2006
18 Jun 2006
22 Jun 2006
6 Jul 2006
17 Jul 2006
13 Aug 2006
15 Aug 2006
16 Aug 2006
20 Aug 2006
11 Oct 2006
31 Oct 2006
29 Dec 2006
4 Jan 2006
12 Jan 2006
27 Jan 2007
17 Feb 2007
30 Apr 2007
27 Aug 2007
5 Sep 2007
19 Oct 2007
23 Nov 2007
5 Jan 2008
16 Jan 2008
4 Feb 2008
7 May 2008
20 Jun 2008
4 Feb 2008
Mark Ellis' PR Hits Bottom and Bounces
2008-01-18 08:50
by Ken Arneson

OK, so yesterday I wrote a blog entry explaining that Mark Ellis gets ZERO publicity, and deserves plenty. And then, just before I went to bed, I found a new blog entry (subscribers only) from ESPN.com's Rob Neyer, where he ranks the best second basemen in baseball. So what did Neyer conclude about Ellis?

Nothing. Neyer didn't even mention Ellis.

See what I mean?

To be fair, Neyer had decided to exclude anyone over 30 from his analysis. But that didn't stop him from mentioning four other 2Bs who were over 30, only one of which (Placido Planco, 8.6) had a higher score in Neyer's chosen metric (WARP1) than Ellis' 8.4. Meanwhile, Brian Roberts (7.1), Orlando Hudson (6.9) and Jeff Kent (5.0) all got their props.

So I went to bed more ticked off than ever--even the one mainstream writer in America most likely to appreciate the value of Mark Ellis had completely overlooked him. I was beginning to sense a crusade of Rich Lederer proportions welling up inside me.

Fortunately, when I woke up this morning, I found I did not need to go off and fight windmills. Rob Neyer didn't become Rob Neyer without the ability to realize a mistake: today, he wrote this:

Yesterday Mark Ellis didn't make my list of the 10 best second basemen (2008-2012). I doubted myself almost immediately, thanks to something a reader said in the comments section (from the bottom, the ninth up). Now, along comes Catfish Stew saying Ellis was more valuable last season than Derek Jeter ... and I'm having trouble finding a massive flaw in his analysis.

Thank you, Rob. Mark Ellis' level of publicity is now greater than zero. Mission accomplished!

 

* * *

 

If there is a flaw in my analysis, is that I didn't use a coherent measurement to compare players. The defensive stat I used, Average Range Score, is a combined rate stat that compares players to league average, while my offensive stat is a counting stat that compares players to replacement level. I figured it didn't matter much, because I was only trying to compare relative value. I could have used WARP, like Neyer did, but I don't agree with Neyer's belief that BP's basic fielding stat (FRAR) is "is a generally worthy metric". I wanted to use the newer, more advanced and accurate fielding stats based on play-by-play data.

The funny thing is, if I had used WARP instead of my mixed-up stat, it would have made my argument even stronger. According to my measurement, Ellis was the 7th-best 2B in baseball last year. According to WARP, he was 4th-best:

Name Defense Offense Total WARP1
Utley 20 69 84 9.3
Polanco 8 49 57 8.6
Cano 11 41 52 9.2
Phillips 13 37 50 7.6
Roberts 0 49 49 7.1
Hudson 12 33 45 6.9
Ellis 19 24 43 8.4
Hill 13 27 40 5.2
Pedroia 0 36 36 5.3
Kinsler 6 29 35 5.4
Matsui 11 17 28 4.7
Kent -13 40 27 5.0
Kendrick 7 19 26 2.0
Belliard 2 21 23 5.3
Grudzielanek 4 18 22 2.6
Johnson -12 33 21 6.7
DeRosa - 1 21 20 4.5
Sanchez - 9 28 19 4.5
Uggla -15 30 15 7.9
Iguchi 3 9 12 2.1
Weeks -18 26 8 3.9
Castillo - 2 10 8 1.0
Lopez 6 - 9 - 3 2.0
Giles - 3 - 9 -12 2.5
Kennedy 0 -13 -13 0.3
Barfield - 2 -14 -16 0.3
Durham -15 -11 -26 0.0
Biggio -19 - 7 -26 -0.1

 

Comments
2008-01-18 09:24:40
1.   williamnyy23
When I saw Neyer's ranking, just after posting in response to your article, I had to chuckle.

Still, I think it's easy to see why Ellis flies under the radar. He is already over 30, has played only 650 games and is very inconsistent on offense (good year/bad year). What's more, he has never had a great season to establish his name.

Also, for what's it worth, I found this old Peter Gammons extolling the virtues of Ellis, so it seems as if he has had some love over his career. Still, I don't think a player like Ellis really "deserves" much attention, which doesn't mean he isn't a good baseball player when his offense clicks.

http://tinyurl.com/2pmhnq

2008-01-18 09:35:39
2.   Jon Weisman
Kudos to you both, I say.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.