Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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Some tidbits absorbed from staring at the A's roster:
That last point leads to a particularly painful thought about the 2008 A's lineup (as it stands today): their best four, and possibly five, hitters are all left-handed. Without the switch-hitting Swisher in the middle of the lineup, it's hard to construct a lineup that doesn't make it easy for an opposing manager to just run out his LOOGY during a critical point in the game to cut down the A's offense. If you want to avoid that, you have to inject Chris Denorfia and/or Mark Ellis higher into the order than you ordinarily would based on their OBP/SLGs. Maybe you run out the projected lineup like this (Position, Name, Handedness, ZIPS projected OBP/SLG):
Perhaps you swap Chavez and Cust, but I personally hate having pure three-true-outcome types in the middle of the lineup; I think they fit best batting sixth or seventh, at the tail end of a string of good hitters instead of in the middle. I don't have any numbers to support this belief, but from years of watching, I much prefer my cleanup guys to be able to adjust their game to the game situation, and the TTO guys only play one way. (The lineup tool wants Cust to hit leadoff, by the way.)
Another thing of note: Every player in that lineup except Sweeney and Crosby is projected by ZiPS for an OBP above the average player at his position. Now, swap out Sweeney with Barry Bonds. How's that lineup look now? Is it actually--dare we say it?--good?
With good pitching, I think you can win with that lineup. The problem remains this: in order to achieve Victory 2008! we are still counting on a healthy rotation consisting of Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Chad Gaudin, Joe Blanton, and one clear winner from the group of Eveland/DiNardo/Meyer/Braden. If the three hurt guys stay hurt, and the rotation looks more like Blanton/Eveland/DiNardo/Meyer/Braden most of the season, the A's ain't gonna win any titles, even if their lineup looks like the New York Yankees.
I am 26 years old. 23 members of the A's 40-man roster are younger than me.
Could be worse, though. I'm thankful I've only gained about a pound a year since high school. The pounds will come, Mark. Enjoy them while you don't have them.
...unless of course the A's still add that 43 year old left-handed DH they were looking at...
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